The only constant in this world is Change, isn’t it?

The world has progressed so far only because of humongous changes that occurred over the million years. The field of Politics is no exception to this truth. From leading the family to leading a small tribal group, from ruling a kingdom to actually governing a country, Politics has globally evolved and is still evolving. 

Two centuries ago, Politics was something which was purely restricted to royal families and other influential families. Slowly, this started to change due to various uprisings in the world. After this, emerged the system of elected candidates from political parties to handle the governance of states and countries all around the world. Fast forward to the 21st century, various universities started to focus on Politics as a separate field of study and started training individuals professionally in the field of public policy thus increasing their chances to enter the field with expertise and excel at the same. 

The world is now trying to finally ignore the retrospective approach in politics and starting to adopt prospective strategies in governance. And it’s also trying to focus on bringing in policies based in the future forecasts for the coming decade, 2030. These forecasts conducted by various public policy researchers and economists all over the world try to predict the future political trends which the world will witness in the year 2030.

In this article, we will discuss some of the major political trends for the next decade briefly based on the four major megatrends declared by the National Intelligence Council, USA.

Individual Empowerment:

The years to come will majorly focus on Individual Empowerment which will act as a key to solve various other geopolitical issues. One of the pressing issues in the current global situation is the wide income gap among different groups of the population. While there are millions struck in the below poverty line, the wealth of the world concentrated in the hands of just thousands. The coming years will take measures to reduce the gap. Since the healthcare facilities are improving and the access to education all over the world has increased, there is a spike in the number of middle-class families thus reducing poverty among classes. This will make the middle class of major socio-economic importance due to their expected wide presence in the future. This trend is considered to be the most significant of all the trends since it will affect the other trends and be a game-changer for each trend. While this megatrend can create a positive impact, it also comes with its own risk. It might give many people in developed countries the access to destructive and lethal technology thus leading to mass violence.

Diffusion of Power:

The world will not just witness growth in various national powers but it will also witness the change in the nature of power in itself. The countries will undergo diffusion of power and the power would mostly be in the nature of multifaceted and amorphous networks based on coalitions between various world powers.  The countries which fail to adopt such nature of power will face a relative decline in their growth according to various economists. It is predicted that the continent of Asia, countries like Turkey, Brazil, Columbia, Nigeria, South Africa etc will witness humongous growth due to diffusion of power whereas countries like Japan, Europe and Russia etc will undergo relatively slower growth according to the report. While these countries have the opportunity to witness growth, countries like Somalia, Burundi, Yemen, Uganda, Afghanistan etc have a high risk of failure according to a report by Sandia National Laboratories. Thus by the year 2030, hegemonic power will almost be impossible.

Demographic Patterns:

The demographic shifts of various regions will also influence the geopolitical conditions of the world in the year 2030. By 2030, the global population would have already reached 8.3 billion easily. As we all know that the world is ageing due to tectonic shifts, this will create a major change in the demographic patterns of the world and this is an ongoing process. While this can work in the favour of the world, it can also lead to a cross-border dispute between the countries. On one side the ageing developed countries will start with its battle of maintaining their current living standards whereas on the other side there will be enormous migration in the developing countries owing to the excess demand of both skilled and unskilled labour in the world as a result of rapid urbanization. This change in the demographic patterns will also increase the construction and industrial activities manifold such that it will be equal to the entire volume of such activities in the world currently. The world bank has estimated that the world will witness a gain of $368 billion dollars by 2025 through trade with just a 3 per cent increase in migrants all over the world.

Food, Water and Energy Nexus:

These three resources will be the most demanded resources during 2030 owing to the rapidly growing population and the vinculum of these three resources which is focussed towards climate change will decide the future of 2030. Addressing food and water security will be very critical and can be resolved only through disruptive and innovative technologies. We will be heading towards a world of scarcities if the policymakers and private sector fail to be proactive towards addressing the issue. 

Though there are various international platforms like FAO etc to ensure food security in the world, they have never been able to come up with a framework to deal with food shortage in the world and exacerbate the shortage of food. Various policymakers suggest increasing food-imports from resource-rich countries could possibly reduce the burden of water-scarce countries as it will save them water utilized in cultivation. 

Energy will also strategically shape the future of 2030 since the energy requirements of the world population would be more than 50% of the current levels. This dramatic increase could only be addressed if the world manages to come up with an innovative solution to harness renewable resources to fulfil the global energy needs by 2025.

Conclusion:

While these are the major four megatrends forecasted for 2030, it doesn’t stop here. The geopolitical situation of the world is ever-evolving due to multiple uprisings and uncertainties  and this is clearly a ball of game where one could always expect only the unexpected.

Reference:

https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/GlobalTrends_2030.pdf

https://www.intechopen.com/books/desalination-challenges-and-opportunities/world-s-demand-for-food-and-water-the-consequences-of-climate-change

https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/17483PB_9_Draft.pdf

https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/trends/Population2030.pdf

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/glimpses-of-a-graying-world-the-demographic-challenges-of-2030/

https://www.politico.eu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/ESPAS_Report2019_V15.pdf

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